The housing market is ‘rebalancing’ as inflation takes its toll

There are clear signs that the housing market is slowing down as the stock of homes starts to increase, while the cost-of-living crisis and rising mortgage starts to adversely affect the housing market.

House price inflation remains stuck in double-digits, as reflected by the latest Nationwide data released last week, which shows that prices are up 11.2% on average year-on-year. But the lender indicated that there are clear signs the property market is slowing down.

Nationwide’s chief economist Robert Gardner, like many analysts, expects the housing market to slow as the year progresses.

“Household finances are likely to remain under pressure with inflation set to reach double digits in the coming quarters if global energy prices remain high,” he said.

“Measures of consumer confidence have already fallen towards record lows. Moreover, the Bank of England is widely expected to raise interest rates further, which will also exert a cooling impact on the market if this feeds through to mortgage rates,’ Gardner added.

Jason Tebb, CEO of OnTheMarket, accepts that there are “subtle signs of a shift” in the housing market.

He said: The market [is] rebalancing through rising numbers of new instructions, although it will take time before this becomes more prevalent.

“The ‘new normal’, an elevated version of the pre-pandemic market continues. It’s a complex market with regional differences continuing to play a part and one size doesn’t fit all. Those buyers who need to move remain determined to get on with it.”

Iain McKenzie, CEO of The Guild of Property Professionals, concurred: “There’s yet another month of growth for the high-flying housing market, but we’re increasingly seeing signs that it is starting to feel the inexorable pull of gravity.

“It’s been surprising how little the cost-of-living crisis has affected house prices, and now it looks like the rate of price rises will gently slow over the coming months, rather than anything more severe.”

Nicky Stevenson, managing director at Fine & Country, agrees that annual price gains are finally beginning to “decelerate as challenges in the broader economy start to filter through to the housing market”.

She added: “Many households are struggling amid the deepening cost of living crisis and it was only a matter of time before we saw a knock-on effect in price growth.

“While an imbalance still exists between supply and demand, things are slowly beginning to shift and at last we are seeing a steady rise in new listings.

“Though momentum remains stronger than many had anticipated, there may be room for further moderation in the months ahead if pay packets continue to be eroded and the Bank of England increases interest rates.”

SOURCE: Property Industry Eye | JUNE 6, 2022 | MARC DA SILVA